Trump beats Biden in every swing state, new poll shows

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May 1

A new Emerson College/The Hill swing state poll shows President Joe Biden behind in seven battleground states that could prove as decisive in the next general election as they did in 2020.

According to the poll, Biden trails former President Donald Trump by three points or more in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and has gained very little ground over the last several months of campaigning, despite out-raising his Republican rival and managing to keep his schedule free of frequent court appearances.

"The state of the presidential election in swing states has remained relatively consistent since Emerson and The Hill started tracking them last November. The share of undecided voters has reduced and Biden gained ground in Georgia and Nevada, narrowing the gap, while Trump has maintained a slight edge on Biden in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said with the poll's release on Tuesday.

U.S. President Joe Biden discusses the reported death of Alexei Navalny in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 16, 2024. (Yuri Gripas/Abaca Press/TNS)

Biden won most of those states in 2020 — Trump took North Carolina — and with 94 votes between them, the electoral college math starts to look pretty grim for any candidate unable to win in at least 6 of the 7 states polled.

As if that weren't bad enough news for the 46th President, the poll also shows third-party candidates only complicate matters for him in most of these important contests.

"When third-party candidates are included on the ballot, support is pulled away from Biden more than Trump in five states: Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Support is drawn evenly from each candidate in Arizona and Michigan," pollsters wrote.

Survey participants were also asked about their thoughts on Trump's criminal trials, which have kept him from campaigning over the last several weeks and acted as a drain on his cash reserves for months.

Despite the support he sees for reelection among polled voters, most see the ongoing trial in New York over his alleged affair with and subsequent cover-up payment to a porn star as a matter of justice, not politics.

Trump, charged with 34 felony counts of falsifying his business records, has denied those allegations and pleaded not guilty to the charges, as he has for 54 other felony charges he faces in other jurisdictions.

"As the criminal trial is being held in New York, voters were asked which statement comes closer to their view: the trial is appropriate to hold Trump accountable, or the trial is a 'witch hunt'. A plurality of voters in all swing states consider the trial appropriate to hold the former president accountable," pollsters wrote.

Voters were almost equally divided on the impact a potential guilty verdict would have on their choices come November, with most saying it wouldn't affect their decision at the ballot box one way or the other.

"A majority of Republicans say it would make them more likely to support Trump in 2024, while 15% of Pennsylvania Republicans say they are less likely to support Trump, along with 13% in Arizona, 11% in Wisconsin, 10% in Michigan, and 9% in Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina," pollsters wrote.