Harris takes polling lead, but voters still think it's Trump's race to lose

By gqlshare on August 1, 2024

The momentum behind Vice President Kamala Harris' sudden campaign for the presidency does not appear to be slowing down.

The latest polls show her with a significant lead over her former President Donald Trump, yet most voters still think the 45th President will win a second term in November.

According to a poll of more than 1,000 registered voters conducted by Civiqs on behalf of the the Daily Kos, Harris is leading Trump by four points, 49%-45%.

During the pollster's last survey, featuring Trump against President Joe Biden, the pair of presidents were tied at 45% each, and "the 4-point gain for Harris this month signals an almost palpable sense of relief among voters." However, voters saying they will support Harris in the fall isn't the same as saying they think she will win, according to the poll.

"45% of respondents think Trump will claim victory, while 42% think Harris will win," the Daily Kos wrote.

Still, that continues to be an improvement on polling over Biden's chances. Last month, only 37% of those polled thought the 81-year-old president could beat Trump. Most surveyed voters — 55% — said they are glad Biden decided to step out of the running, according to Civiqs.

This comes following the second week in a row of Morning Consult's 11,000 person surveys showing Harris with a slight lead over her Republican rival. According to those pollsters, the Vice President finds herself in a better electoral position than her boss ever did.

"Harris leads Trump, 47% to 46%. Her share of support is up 1-percentage point from last week and exceeds the highest level of backing we gauged for Biden (45%) in tracking that goes back to late 2022," they wrote.

"Before she ascended to the top of the ticket, sentiment about Harris had tracked closely with views about Biden. But since securing presumptive status as the Democratic presidential nominee, Harris has become significantly more popular than Biden, Trump and her partisan compatriots in Congress," they said.

A virtual roll call to officially nominate Harris as the Democratic nominee began on Thursday and is expected to finish early next week.